Today marks the official beginning of baseball's exhibition season, and that means it's time for predictions. I'll do the American League today, and move on to the National League tomorrow, going division by division.
AL West:
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Texas Rangers
4. Oakland Athletics
This one is going to be a great race, as the Angels and Mariners both have such a deep pitching rotation that they will match each other arm for arm. But that means it will come down to offense and bullpen depth, which makes the Angels the favorites. The Mariners will compete for the Wild Card, but will fall short to (will be revealed later). The Rangers will flirt with the .500 mark for most of the season, but lack the pitching to make a serious run at the playoffs. And the hapless Athletics will be very distant bottom feeders.
AL Central:
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians (Wild card)
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Minnesota Twins
It's always risky to dethrone the reigning champions so early, but the Tigers, after their off-season acquisitions, are a venerable juggernaut. Their only weaknesses are bullpen depth and health issues at the back end of the pen, but their rotation has 15 game winners from front to back, and their lineup is the new Yankees. The White Sox will have a return to respectability with a .500 record, but it won't be enough to compete with either the Tigers or the Indians. Also, the Royals will emerge from the cellar for the first time in years, due both to improvement on the Royals from both acquisitions and maturing of young talent, and due to the loss of Johan Santana on the Twins' part.
AL East:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Tampa Bay Rays (no joke)
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles
The Red Sox are such a certainty, they require no discussion. The Yankees, while they will probably still make second place, this is the year they finally miss the playoffs. In fact, I predict that the Yankees don't crack 90 wins. Between the overall pitching woes and the bi-annual A-Rod drama, the Yankees will have more problems then even George Steinbrenner's pocketbook can overcome. The Rays will make history with their first .500 season ever, and may even have the talent to overtake the Yankees if their problems cause enough deterioration. The Blue Jays are a sleeping giant of talent, but, as in recent years, they will be too decimated by injuries to make any significant impact. They could hover around the .500 mark, but someone has to take the losses in a stacked league. And then we have the Orioles. Who will, without a doubt, sport the worst record in all of baseball, just behind the Athletics.
Playoffs-
Round 1
Red Sox over Indians
Tigers over Angels
Round 2
Red Sox over Tigers
Awards:
Rookie of the Year- Evan Longoria (Rays)
Manager of the Year- Joe Maddon (Rays)
Cy Young- Josh Beckett (Red Sox)
Most Valuable Player- Miguel Cabrera (Tigers)
That's right, no A-Rod. Not only because the Yankees won't make the playoffs, but because his numbers will be a significant drop off from last year, just as in every even year. Expect 35-40 homers, a .280-.290 batting average and 120 RBI's if he's lucky, along with the usual bi-annual defensive collapse and media circus. All-Star, but not MVP. Check tomorrow for my National League predictions.
Nathan's Pre-Season Baseball Playoff Picks, Part II
Here's my National League predictions.
NL West:
1. Colorado Rockies
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. San Diego Padres
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
5. San Fransisco Giants
This is easily the most wide open district in all of baseball. I picked the Rockies, but every team there has a legitimate chance to win. The biggest keys are going to be the health of Randy Johnson and Mark Prior. If either of them make more than 25 starts, their team would have far and away the best pitching rotation in baseball, and be the favorites in the West. But if neither of them are able to stay healthy, their teams rotations would still be very good, but not enough to make up for the Rockies' vast offensive and relief pitching superiority. Both the Dodgers and the Giants have the pieces to put together a run at the division, but, without big time seasons from their young talent, both will trail the other three.
NL Central:
1. Houston Astros
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Cincinatti Reds
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. St. Louis Cardinals
Am I biased? Hell yes, Go Astros! But I feel that I can rationalize this decision. First of all, the biggest critique of the Astros is their pitching rotation. People talk about it like it's a Texas Rangers rotation. It's not that bad. First of all, Roy ****ing Oswalt. The best pitcher in the NL Central headlines this rotation. The only pitcher-team combinations that Oswalt-Astros wouldn't have a .500+ record against in a significant amount of games (hypothetically- if Oswalt started every game), are Santana-Mets and Beckett-Red Sox. Second of all, the supporting cast isn't that bad. Wandy Rodriguez, Brandon Backe, Woody Williams, and Shawn Chacon/Chris Sampson are all solid #3/#4 type pitchers. None of them are great, but they are all capable of winning 12-15 games with an ERA in the low 4's. Wandy Rodriguez is, I think, the most pivotal player in the entire division this year. He's got the talent to be a legitimate #2 starter. He was dreadfully inconsistent last year (2.94 home ERA vs. 6.37 road ERA), but he does consitently make drastic improvements from year to year. This is my guarantee: If Wandy Rodriguez wins more than 15 games this year, the Astros will make the playoffs. And, while the Astros now potent offense matches almost bat-for-bat with the Cubs and Brewers, the Astros have a far deeper bullpen than either team, and a vastly superior closer. The Brewers honestly have the most talent in the division, but health problems will keep them out of it. If Ben Sheets pitches 200 innings, thier rotation compares favorably to the Astros and Cubs, and their offense has the most potential. But that's a big if considering Sheets' health history, and lack of bullpen depth, and the loss of Fransico Cordero, give them the worst bullpen in the upper half of the division, in an era where relief pitching is more important than ever. The Reds are one of the most improved teams in all of baseball, and probably have the most potent offense, but they will still be too plagued by the lack of depth of their rotation and bullpen to be a certain contender. The Pirates actually are a real sleeping giant. They're loaded with young talent. But a lack of veteran leadership and poor fan support should keep them out of it for at least one more year. The Cardinals will complete their long downward spiral this year with a last place finish, from a combination of injuries, off the field issues, and a simple lack of talent.
NL East:
1. New York Mets
2. Philadelphia Phillies (Wild Card)
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Washington Nationals
5. Florida Marlins
It would take an act of God to keep the Mets from winning this division. Between a spectacular multi-dimensional offense and a strong rotation headlined by the amazing Johan Santana, the Mets are the most stacked team in the National League. The health of their bullpen may be an issue, but they've got a fairly high number of capable arms. The Phillies still have the most powerful offense in the National League, and the improvements made in thier pitching (assuming Brad Lidge and Tom Gordon are healthy, and Lidge is able to make a comeback), should guarantee them the Wild Card, but the Braves and all of the top two runners up in the other two divisions are legitimate threats to the Phillies. The Braves, if Mike Hampton is healthy, could have a very deep rotation. They have questions on offense and in the bullpen, but they are definately a potential contender. The Nationals and Marlins will essentially be non-factors in the 2008 season.
Playoffs:
Round 1-
Astros over Phillies
Mets over Rockies
Round 2-
Mets over Astros
Awards:
Rookie of the Year- Jay Bruce (Reds)
Manager of the Year- Cecil Cooper (Astros)
Cy Young- Johan Santana (Mets)
Most Valuable Player- Chase Utley (Phillies)
And for my World Series prediction, I'm going to play the percentages and take the Red Sox over the Mets in 7 games.
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